Thanks to mathematical models, scientists can explain how extreme events are linked to human-induced climate change. The increase in extreme weather events, whether heat waves, droughts, torrential rains or heavy storms, raises the question of man’s responsibility for climate change.
Regarding the unusual heat wave currently affecting India and Pakistan, scientists give a definite answer by stating that this climatic episode would probably not have occurred without the current climate change. In addition, a study published on May 23 by a team of international researchers concludes that the possibility of such a phenomenon has increased thirtyfold due to global warming. While almost no one disputes the impact of human activities on global warming, estimated at 1.2˚C compared to the pre-industrial era, scientists have already taken the next step.
They are developing an attribution science that will make it possible to establish the extent to which an extreme event is made more or less likely and intense due to climate change. Aurélien Ribes, a researcher at the Analysis and Modeling of the Atmosphere, Climate and its Sensitivity Unit at the National Meteorological Research Center of Météo France and the CNRS, explains that this is a relatively new subject that was not practiced at Météo France five years ago.
Its interest is to allow both to characterize the extreme phenomena and to propose a clear picture of the effects of climate change for the public and policy makers. Robert Vautard, meteorologist, climatologist and director of the Pierre-Simon Laplace Institute, explains that in the early 2010s, scientists realized the value of conducting attribution studies in real time to inform decision makers and push them to act.
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