TO FIGHT THE VIRUS, THE PLANET MUST BE VACCINATED
US TO GIVE AWAY 10% OF ITS COVID-19 VACCINE SUPPLY TO THE REST OF THE WORLD-SOURCE ALAMY
Let the rich countries take their responsibility by helping the suffering countries to be vaccinated.
The arrival of COVID will have had the effect of increasing inequalities and widening inequalities between populations.
As a reminder, the world’s population is 7.9 billion people.
According to official figures, 1 billion people have received two doses of vaccine, while 3.8 billion have received only one.
And what we can conclude from all this is that the gap between “rich” and “poor” countries is widening.
In fact, Europe, the USA and Canada have more than 60% of their population vaccinated (cf: https://ourworldindata.org/
In addition, half of these vaccinated populations in Africa have been vaccinated with the Chinese vaccine, whose effectiveness is low, with a rate of less than 50%.
It is enough to see the worrying figures of a country like Senegal which knows a crazy curve with this third wave and the Delta virus, there are practically more than 700 cases per day and often the figures are under evaluated.
In addition, to the staggering figures on the entire African continent, we must add the population’s distrust of vaccines, the difficulties of supply and the slowness of the campaign, not to mention the corruption and embezzlement of funds as in Kenya and Cameroon.
Kenya and Cameroon.
On the whole African continent, less than 3% of the population has been vaccinated, in Europe, it is 60%, the differences are scandalous.
The real fear for Africa and the whole world is the appearance of new variants even more powerful and more contagious.
The most affected country is by far South Africa with 20,000 cases per day filling of 90%.
The picture is not necessarily more reassuring for the “rich” countries, which are seeing a resurgence of infections despite vaccination. According to the Our World In Data website, “instead of being free of the coronavirus, countries are now facing an outbreak of infections” (see https://ourworldindata.org/
Scientists now agree that, in order to vaccinate 80% of the world’s population, 3 doses, perhaps even 4, will be necessary to overcome these new variants which are more resistant and more contagious.
To date, the vaccines with 90% efficacy are the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. The problem is the industrial production capacity of these vaccines.
For example, Moderna’s annual production in 2022 will be 1.4 billion doses
This production represents the full vaccination of 500 million people if we consider that 3 doses are necessary.
For Pfizer, the annual production for 2022 is 3 to 4 billion doses.
This production suggests that 1 billion people will be fully vaccinated, again assuming that 3 doses are necessary.
As for the other vaccines, their effectiveness is lower (with an average rate of 60%), which makes the projections more vague. However, we can estimate production at around 2 billion per year, which represents 600 million people vaccinated on the basis of 3 doses.
All these figures can be weighted by the rebound of the number of contaminations and by the emergence of more resistant variants. The impact is estimated at 30% during the year on people who have been vaccinated and who will need a new dose.
So on average, of those vaccinated, 200 million people will need to be vaccinated a third time.
At this rate, keeping variants under control and increasing production capacity by 20%, with the goal of vaccinating 80% of the world’s population, i.e. 6.4 billion people with a minimum of 3 doses, total production should be at least 20 billion doses.
At this rate, without any major incident and according to an optimistic projection, it will be necessary to wait until the end of 2023/beginning of 2024 to ensure that the spread of COVID has been halted.
If a fourth dose is necessary, and according to a moderate projection, it would be necessary to wait until the end of 2024/beginning of 2025 to reach this objective.
In the event of delivery delays and/or logistical failures, a moderate/pessimistic projection would delay the target to 2026.
Furthermore, if a fifth dose becomes necessary and/or contraindications to vaccines with little visibility, such as the Chinese vaccine, become apparent, the goal would be delayed to 2027-28.
Finally, if, in addition to the fifth dose and possible contraindications on Chinese vaccines, logistical failures were to emerge, this would lead us to a pessimistic version in 2028-29.
The fight will undoubtedly be long and difficult. Without significant logistics, but also and above all a political will to help the poorest countries, this battle against COVID could drag on for a long time.
The other question that arises is the colossal budget that this will generate… Who will pay?
Here is a projection of the costs according to the volumes to be produced:
1- 20 billion doses at 15 USD per dose, minimum 300 billion USD
2 – 26 billion doses at 15 USD per dose, minimum 400 billion USD
3 – 32 billion doses at 15 USD per dose, minimum 500 billion USD
4 – 40 billion doses at 15 USD per dose, minimum 600 billion USD
2 – 45 billion doses at 15 USD per dose, minimum 650 billion USD
These projections are based on a vaccine price of March 2021, and it is highly likely that vaccine prices will rise sharply by 30 to 30 percent.
It is highly likely that vaccine prices will increase by 30-50%, which would explode global health budgets.